This year's coffee output is forecast to decrease by 10-15%/year due to unfavorable weather. However, from now until the end of the year, coffee exports will still be favorable as demand increases while supply does not improve.
Recently, domestic coffee prices have continuously increased along with world coffee prices.
With the forecast that El Nino will appear in the third quarter of 2023, it will affect coffee output in Vietnam and Indonesia, along with the low supply of many of the world's leading coffee producing countries, coffee prices will continue to improve. Coffee exports could exceed the record of 4 billion USD in 2022.
The average coffee price in the Central Highlands provinces continued to increase sharply in the past week and reached a record level in the last 3 months.
Domestic coffee prices on June 7 ranged from 61,200-61,800 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg compared to the previous day. Specifically, the price of green coffee (green coffee, fresh green coffee) in Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at prices ranging from 61,100-61,200 VND/kg.
Coffee price in Gia Lai province and Kon Tum province stands at 61,500 VND/kg. In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at a high price of 61,800 VND/kg.
Coffee prices in Dak Lak province, in Cu M'gar district, coffee prices are currently at 61,600 VND/kg. In Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 61,700 VND/kg.
In Dak Lak, the average Robusta coffee price last week reached 60,933 VND/kg, an increase of 0.68% compared to last week and an increase of 43,60% compared to the same period in 2022. In Lam Dong, Robusta coffee price increased by 0.47% compared to last week , to an average of 60,400 VND/kg and an increase of 44,15% compared to the same period in 2022.
According to the Center for Digital Transformation and Agricultural Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, coffee exports in May are estimated to reach 165,000 tons with a value of 396 million USD, bringing the total volume to the value of coffee exports in 5 months. In early 2023, it will reach 882,000 tons with 2.02 billion USD, down 2.2% in volume but up 0.2% in value compared to the same period last year.
With the growth in the first months of the year, observers believe that the record of coffee export value of 4 billion USD in 2022 will likely be broken.
In May 2023, world coffee prices fluctuated sharply due to low Robusta supply in leading producing countries. Robusta coffee price for delivery in July 2023 in the London market (UK) increased by 148 USD/ton, to 2,557 USD/ton.
Along with that, the average export coffee price in the first 5 months of 2023 is estimated to reach 2,295 USD/ton, an increase of 2.4% compared to the same period in 2022. Thus, in the last months of the year, export value will be even higher. anymore when new price contracts are delivered.
Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association Do Ha Nam said that coffee prices are continuously increasing because supply is not enough to meet demand. This year's coffee output is forecast to decrease to 10-15%/year due to unfavorable weather. From now until the end of the year, coffee exports will still be favorable as demand increases while supply has not improved.
Along with exports, many key coffee production areas are also aiming to sustainably develop the domestic consumption market. Recently, the appearance of many Vietnamese coffee brands and international supply chains from companies in the coffee industry has caused domestic consumption to increase quite a bit.
Typically, Dak Lak, by 2022, the province will have over 250 coffee processing establishments; including 235 establishments processing powdered coffee, roasted coffee beans and 15 establishments processing instant coffee. Thus, Dak Lak province has at least 250 processed coffee brands supplying the domestic and export markets.
Dak Lak is also encouraging coffee businesses to improve their production, business and product competitiveness, expanding the domestic market as a foundation for building a national brand.
Mr. Le Duc Huy, General Director of 2/9 Dak Lak Import-Export One Member Company Limited (Simexco Dak Lak) said that in 2022, the unit will export nearly 101,000 tons of green coffee, with domestic consumption of about 25,000 tons. . Simexco Dak Lak is very interested in the domestic coffee consumption market.
Developing specialty coffee with the goal of building a brand, thereby affirming the position of Vietnam's coffee industry, which is receiving attention and promotion from the State.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has approved the "Project for developing Vietnamese specialty coffee for the period 2021-2030" with the goal that by 2025, our country's specialty coffee area will be 21T3T total area, equivalent to the total area of coffee production. Output is at 5,000 tons and will increase to 3% and 11,000 tons respectively in 2030.
Mr. Le Duc Huy said that Vietnamese coffee is less weak thanks to shifting to quality instead of volume. Simexco Dak Lak Company is also a pioneer in developing specialty coffee.
Developing specialty coffee is a change in coffee production from tradition to responsibility. Responsibility requires the producer to ensure that the output product meets the requirements of the consumer-importer.
Vietnam's coffee exports are receiving good support from transaction prices and domestic prices remain at record highs, aiming for a turnover in 2023 that could exceed 4 billion USD./.
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