What should we keep in mind when exporting Vietnam's strong products to China and what is the export forecast for the last months of the year?
The Ministry of Industry and Trade has just reported to the Prime Minister on the import and export situation of Vietnam - China goods and proposed solutions to promote stability and trade growth.
Assessing the prospects for the last months of the year, this ministry said that Vietnam's exports to China could return to growth of 8%, if the country's economy is stable.
In the opposite direction, the rate of decline in imports from China will also gradually decrease, as the demand for imported raw materials is gradually restored.
Textiles and cement will be subject to order 259
Analyzing a number of prospective products, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that with textiles and garments, market demand may recover by the end of the year, so turnover can remain the same as in 2022.
However, in the near future, China will likely consider applying Order 259 on third-party inspection for textile and garment products, so care needs to be taken to meet the regulations.
With computers, phones, and components, it is forecast that the demand of the Chinese market may recover, so exports are expected to grow positively.
Regarding clinker and cement, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that from the end of 2022, cement demand in the Chinese market will decline sharply. The relationship between supply and demand is seriously imbalanced, cement and clinker prices continuously fluctuate and adjust to the bottom level, clinker imports no longer appear in China.
In addition, China included cement products in the list of goods applicable to Order 259. Therefore, cement export activities to China will face certain difficulties.
For seafood products, catfish accounts for over 25% of seafood shipped to China. However, China's import turnover of this product group from Vietnam decreased by 54% over the same period.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade said that Vietnam will remain the main source of catfish for the Chinese market.
However, China is diversifying the supply of this product, including partners in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia.
This will gradually put pressure on Vietnam's export businesses, especially when the country increasingly places high requirements on imported products.
As for shrimp products, this is a product that accounts for a large proportion in the structure of seafood products exported to China with 40%. However, this product is facing great competition from markets such as Ecuador, India, and Argentina.
It is forecasted that in the second half of 2023, Vietnam's shrimp exports to China will still be able to recover, but the speed will be slow due to price competition.
Prospects for durian, watermelon, rubber
With cassava and cassava products, Vietnam and Thailand are the two main markets supplying cassava starch to China, but export turnover decreased to 51%.
The decrease in turnover is due to increased import costs and declining domestic demand for some industries that use cassava and related products as raw materials such as vermicelli and vermicelli production, paper production...
In the context of import prices continuing to escalate, importers are cautious, but consumption demand continues to maintain, so it is forecast that the second half of this year will be the peak consumption season for the food and manufacturing industries. paper, will have a good impact on Vietnam's cassava export prospects to this country.
Fruit and vegetable products, with turnover increasing to 121.9%, mainly durian, watermelon, and frozen fruit will continue to have prospects. However, dragon fruit and mango exports declined as the country increased domestic supply.
With rubber, China is Vietnam's number 1 rubber import market, so there are positive prospects that can be expected to boost rubber imports from Vietnam as well as rubber prices in the last 6 months of the year. 2023.
According to statistics, Vietnam's exports to China in 6 months reached nearly 26 billion USD, down 0.96%; Imports from China reached nearly 50 billion USD, down 19.4% over the same period in 2022.
To promote exports, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said it will promote the effectiveness of bilateral cooperation mechanisms to take advantage of opportunities to expand trade cooperation and resolve problems arising in bilateral trade; Strengthen exploitation and expansion of cooperation opportunities with Chinese markets according to the "regional access" strategy.
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