Although the world economic situation is still difficult and market demand has not recovered, with a stable macroeconomic foundation, along with synchronous measures to support domestic production and trade promotion, Domestic and export market expansion was strongly implemented, so industrial production and trade activities in May showed signs of improvement.
In the first 5 months of 2023, the world context continues to fluctuate in complexity and unpredictability. Strategic competition among major powers is more intense, leading to the participation of many countries and regions; Tightening monetary policy has a stronger impact on businesses, economic activities, investment, and global consumption; Many major economies' growth slowed down, even falling into recession, while inflation remained high, risks increased again; China's recovery is not yet sustainable; risks of the banking system, public debt, corporate debt, etc. increase; Green economic development and environmental protection are both opportunities, but also challenges when many developed countries use them to create import barriers...
According to forecasts of international organizations, 2023 will be a difficult year for Vietnam's economy due to impacts from both inside and outside. Vietnam's economy is highly open, so it is likely to be affected by the decline in global economic growth, market fluctuations and policy adjustments of major economies, especially interest rate policies - exchange rate. Vietnam's two main growth drivers, exports and domestic consumption, may face many challenges. The trade balance is forecast to continue to improve, however exports will face common challenges from partner markets. Domestic market demand is not growing high, inflation tends to increase, hindering economic recovery...
In that context, the Government and Prime Minister have correctly assessed the situation, drastically directed, urged, and flexibly operated to harmonize immediate and long-term goals; promote initiative, dynamism, creativity, and drastically implement solutions to restore and develop the economy and ensure social security.
Based on the viewpoints and direction and direction of the Government and the Prime Minister, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has thoroughly grasped and concretized programs and action plans, especially closely following the changing situation. fluctuations of the world economy to be flexible in operating, focusing on reviewing, organizing and implementing drastically and quickly the proposed key tasks and solutions; promptly remove difficulties and obstacles to mobilize all resources for development. The development situation of the Industry and Trade sector in May and the first 5 months of 2023 is as follows:
Although the world economic situation is still difficult and market demand has not recovered, with a stable macroeconomic foundation, along with synchronous measures to support domestic production and trade promotion, Domestic and export market expansion was strongly implemented, so industrial production and trade activities in May showed signs of improvement.
However, as a highly open economy, its ability to withstand external shocks is still weak, depending heavily on FDI (in the first 5 months of 2023, accounting for 74% of export turnover, 65% of import turnover). password); Supporting industries are slow to develop, production and export depend heavily on imported raw materials... Meanwhile, input costs, including raw material costs, production costs, logistics, and loan interest Although it is gradually decreasing remains at a high level; The output market has shrunk, orders have dropped sharply, some fields have only shown signs of order recovery since the beginning of the third quarter of 2023... which has impacted industrial production and exports in the first 5 months. 2023, specifically:
Some localities have had quite high IIP index increases
– Regarding the industrial production development index (IIP): Although the Vietnam manufacturing PMI index in May continued to decrease to 45.3 compared to 46.7 points in April (the first monthly decline). third consecutive period, since March 2023), indicating continued decline in manufacturing as demand conditions continue to be weak; Output and new orders fell more sharply as companies cut jobs and purchases accordingly. However, with efforts in dismantling production and business to expand and promote production, the industrial production index in May is estimated to increase by 2.2% compared to the previous month and by 0.1% compared to the previous month. compared to the same period last year (processing and manufacturing industry decreased by 0.5% compared to the same period last year; mining industry decreased by 2.9%; electricity production and distribution industry increased by 5%; water supply industry, management activities and waste and wastewater treatment increased by 6.8%).
In general, for the first 5 months of 2023, the world economic situation in the first months of 2023 faces many difficulties, a decrease in export orders has affected domestic industrial production activities, and the production index of the entire industrial sector decreased. 2% compared to the same period last year (same period in 2022 increased by 8.1%). Of which, the processing and manufacturing industry decreased by 2.5% (same period increased by 8.9%); Electricity production and distribution increased by 0.8%; Mining industry decreased by 3.5%; Water supply industry, waste and wastewater management and treatment activities increased by 6.4%.
By locality, IIP in the first 5 months of 2023 compared to the same period last year increased in 49 localities and decreased in 14 localities across the country. Among them, some localities had a fairly high increase in the IIP index due to high increases in processing and manufacturing industries (such as: Gia Lai increased by 21.7%; Tuyen Quang increased by 18.6%; Bac Giang increased by 15. 9%; Phu Tho increased 15.3%; Hai Phong increased 13.3%; Kien Giang increased 12.3%; and electricity distribution increased (such as Hau Giang increased by 270.9%; Thai Binh increased by 63.3%...).
In the opposite direction, some localities had a decrease in IIP index due to a decrease in the processing and manufacturing industry (such as Quang Nam decreased by 36.7%; Bac Ninh decreased by 19.1%; Vinh Long decreased by 16.6%; Soc Trang decreased by 16.6%). 16.5%; Da Nang decreased by 4.8%; Hoa Binh decreased by 4.6%.) or due to the decrease in electricity production and distribution (such as: Ha Giang decreased by 33.4%; Lai Chau decreased by 28.5%; Son La decreased by 11 ,9%; Hoa Binh decreased 6.2%; Da Nang decreased 2.7%).
The number of workers working in industrial enterprises as of May 1, 2023 increased by 0.8% compared to the same time last month and decreased by 4.8% compared to the same time last year.
Production index in the first 5 months of 2023 of a number of key sectors in secondary industries decreased compared to the same period last year, such as: Motor vehicle production decreased by 10.1%; Production of paper and paper products decreased by 8.5%; Apparel production decreased by 8.3%; Production of beds, wardrobes, tables, chairs decreased by 5.9%; Wood processing and wood product manufacturing decreased by 5.8%; Production of other means of transport decreased by 5.6%; Metal production decreased by 5.5%; Production of electronic products, computers and optical products decreased by 5.1%. On the contrary, the IIP index of some industries increased compared to the same period last year, such as: Metal ore mining increased by 13%; Production of coke and refined petroleum products increased by 12.7%; tobacco product production increased by 8.6%; Waste collection, treatment and disposal activities, repair, maintenance and installation of machinery and equipment all increased by 8.1%; beverage production increased by 6.5%; Production of products from rubber and plastic increased by 6.3%; Water exploitation, treatment and supply increased by 5.4%.
Some key industrial products in the first 5 months of 2023 increased compared to the same period last year: Diameter increased by 31.1%; gasoline and oil increased by 13.5%; textiles made from artificial fibers increased by 10.6%; NPK mixed fertilizer increased by 9.2%; cigarettes increased by 8.6%; TV increased 7%. On the contrary, some products decreased compared to the same period last year: Automobiles decreased by 24%; Bar steel and angle steel decreased by 20.1%; mobile phone decreased by 16.4%; fabrics woven from natural fibers and phone components both decreased by 10.1%; Casual clothes reduced by 9.8%.
In the following months, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue to closely monitor the production situation of industries and fields. The organization will work with a number of key industrial sectors and localities to promptly grasp and resolve difficulties. promote production development; Continue to organize connections between domestic enterprises to participate in the supply chains of FDI enterprises and large global enterprises; In addition, continue to support businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to recover and develop production through solutions to stabilize financial and monetary markets to remove capital difficulties (such as : review to continue proposing exemptions and reductions of some taxes and fees) and monetary solutions (facilitating access to credit), creating conditions to support businesses, especially businesses in the processing sector , manufacturing has more resources to recover and develop.
